There's always a smell surrounding anything that a zealously enthusiastic group of people want everyone else to think or do. It's the smell of self interest. Always ask what's in it for them for you to think there's something in it for you.
Thanks Mike! Imagine my annoyance reading your SBF piece after I had published mine. I would've included it in here since I feel like (in addition to being your normal high quality) it hit some of the angles I didn't get into but wanted to. Although even then this story is so multifaceted neither of us spent more than a paragraph on the Effective Altruism angle.
In many ways this feels like the story that captures so much of what's wrong with the world today.
Another terrific article! You do a particularly good job of identifying the Catch-22 of crypto: is it a currency, which we would want to be stable, or an investment, which we would want to keep growing like crazy? The beanie babies analogy was also fun and accurate.
The one argument I have heard in favor of blockchain currencies is the one put forth by Kim Stanley Robinson (in The Ministry for the Future and other places): blockchain currency could actually be a powerful anti-corruption and anti-tax-evasion technology, if it is totally transparent. But the way it is used now, here in the real world instead of fantasyland--is for illegal pursuits and money-laundering. And I’m not sure it would be possible to launch a totally transparent international currency anyway. The people with the most money would be strongly resistant to the idea for obvious reasons.
Incidentally, I was so disappointed that Michael Lewis, whom I greatly admire, got snookered. But at least he is very likely to learn from this whole debacle. Will everyone else though? We can hope!
I haven’t totally read every word, but for me cryptocurrency isn’t worth the word. Maybe cryptic would be a better way of describing it. Thankfully our granddaughter who purchased a small amount sold, as we would have advised her to do, but I cannot believe that people are so gullible to think that it will eventually make them millions. Ok, maybe some have made a profit but when something isn’t real, who can honestly believe that it will bring you Mecca. As a common saying is “There is no such thing as a free lunch” eventually you will have to pay, and perhaps big time.
We know a regular Joe who invested early in Bitcoin and has paid off his mortgage. That has never convinced me that a currency will succeed that i, a college educated adult, can't understand.
“You can’t be both a currency and a high yield investment”. FACTS.
Really enjoyed this piece Dan, you reminded me of a quote from “The Lessons of History”:
“It is good that new ideas should be heard, for the sake of the few that can be used; but it is also good that new ideas should be compelled to go through the mill of objection, opposition, and contumely; this is the trial heat which innovations must survive before being allowed to enter the human race.”
" Let me pitch you on a currency. It’s accepted by almost everyone in the world, and the places it isn’t accepted I can convert it into what they do accept. I can transfer it electronically with the greatest of ease but also easily convert it into a form that makes it untraceable except to the most determined efforts. If someone steals it, I can report it to the state. And – relevantly – if anything happens to my bank, the currency is guaranteed by the most powerful government in the history of mankind. What is this amazing currency? It’s called the United States Dollar."
This is where you're wrong. The system above that you have trust in does not work. The dollar is broken. It will not continue to be the store of value that you need it to be. Look into this, look into the history of gold as a money, look into the end of WWII, look into what money actually historically is outside your limited perspective, and then write an article. I'll be excited to read.
It's like you get that everyone is lying to you, except the people that print your money. Why couldn't they lie to you? Well, you have to buy into their lies because your dog needs food.
The people who print money may be lying to you but they also stand behind their money with armies to make sure you and everyone else accepts the money.
It's pretty substantially different than some guy printing money and trying to convince everyone it's worth the same as a dollar.
All currency is a fantasy. I think that’s what Dan is saying: the American dollar is a fantasy that virtually the whole world has bought into. Easier to keep trading on that one than inventing a new one that nobody can understand.
why is that easier? if it means corporate and political factions of bad actors can steal your future from you, why is that easier? it's easier because it means you have certainty and you don't have to do anything. wake up.
Yeah that person I know that I mentioned earlier has paid off his mortgage with bitcoin.
But like I said, so few people understand how it is generated and what it even is. When that can be communicated and vast numbers of people get it, I can see it as a viable alternative.
There's always a smell surrounding anything that a zealously enthusiastic group of people want everyone else to think or do. It's the smell of self interest. Always ask what's in it for them for you to think there's something in it for you.
Enjoyed this clear-sighted piece a lot.
Thanks Mike! Imagine my annoyance reading your SBF piece after I had published mine. I would've included it in here since I feel like (in addition to being your normal high quality) it hit some of the angles I didn't get into but wanted to. Although even then this story is so multifaceted neither of us spent more than a paragraph on the Effective Altruism angle.
In many ways this feels like the story that captures so much of what's wrong with the world today.
Another terrific article! You do a particularly good job of identifying the Catch-22 of crypto: is it a currency, which we would want to be stable, or an investment, which we would want to keep growing like crazy? The beanie babies analogy was also fun and accurate.
The one argument I have heard in favor of blockchain currencies is the one put forth by Kim Stanley Robinson (in The Ministry for the Future and other places): blockchain currency could actually be a powerful anti-corruption and anti-tax-evasion technology, if it is totally transparent. But the way it is used now, here in the real world instead of fantasyland--is for illegal pursuits and money-laundering. And I’m not sure it would be possible to launch a totally transparent international currency anyway. The people with the most money would be strongly resistant to the idea for obvious reasons.
Incidentally, I was so disappointed that Michael Lewis, whom I greatly admire, got snookered. But at least he is very likely to learn from this whole debacle. Will everyone else though? We can hope!
I haven’t totally read every word, but for me cryptocurrency isn’t worth the word. Maybe cryptic would be a better way of describing it. Thankfully our granddaughter who purchased a small amount sold, as we would have advised her to do, but I cannot believe that people are so gullible to think that it will eventually make them millions. Ok, maybe some have made a profit but when something isn’t real, who can honestly believe that it will bring you Mecca. As a common saying is “There is no such thing as a free lunch” eventually you will have to pay, and perhaps big time.
We know a regular Joe who invested early in Bitcoin and has paid off his mortgage. That has never convinced me that a currency will succeed that i, a college educated adult, can't understand.
“You can’t be both a currency and a high yield investment”. FACTS.
Really enjoyed this piece Dan, you reminded me of a quote from “The Lessons of History”:
“It is good that new ideas should be heard, for the sake of the few that can be used; but it is also good that new ideas should be compelled to go through the mill of objection, opposition, and contumely; this is the trial heat which innovations must survive before being allowed to enter the human race.”
" Let me pitch you on a currency. It’s accepted by almost everyone in the world, and the places it isn’t accepted I can convert it into what they do accept. I can transfer it electronically with the greatest of ease but also easily convert it into a form that makes it untraceable except to the most determined efforts. If someone steals it, I can report it to the state. And – relevantly – if anything happens to my bank, the currency is guaranteed by the most powerful government in the history of mankind. What is this amazing currency? It’s called the United States Dollar."
This is where you're wrong. The system above that you have trust in does not work. The dollar is broken. It will not continue to be the store of value that you need it to be. Look into this, look into the history of gold as a money, look into the end of WWII, look into what money actually historically is outside your limited perspective, and then write an article. I'll be excited to read.
It's like you get that everyone is lying to you, except the people that print your money. Why couldn't they lie to you? Well, you have to buy into their lies because your dog needs food.
The people who print money may be lying to you but they also stand behind their money with armies to make sure you and everyone else accepts the money.
It's pretty substantially different than some guy printing money and trying to convince everyone it's worth the same as a dollar.
All currency is a fantasy. I think that’s what Dan is saying: the American dollar is a fantasy that virtually the whole world has bought into. Easier to keep trading on that one than inventing a new one that nobody can understand.
why is that easier? if it means corporate and political factions of bad actors can steal your future from you, why is that easier? it's easier because it means you have certainty and you don't have to do anything. wake up.
I just assumed that business as usual was easier to achieve than complete revolution when there’s no great alternative and minimal buy in.
but there is a great alternative! check it out, it happens to be bitcoin (not crypto)
Yeah that person I know that I mentioned earlier has paid off his mortgage with bitcoin.
But like I said, so few people understand how it is generated and what it even is. When that can be communicated and vast numbers of people get it, I can see it as a viable alternative.
Wake up to what?
basically, the dollar is collapsing and you need bitcoin (not crypto) to survive it.
Two things:
1) The dollar is not collapsing
2) If the dollar did collapse, that would mean the United States collapsed and Bitcoin (or gold or whatever) will do fuck all for you.
If you really think the dollar is going to collapse, buy ammunition and canned goods.
You're going to have to show your work here, plebpoet
I invested $1000 last spring in bit coin. It is now down to $339.
absolutely, completely, yes you're right. that's what I'm hoping to do in my work on substack
I for one would like to know what the dog thinks of all this